Capital Cities Face a Shifting Housing Landscape

0

This new data also highlights a considerable increase in the number of homes being listed for sale in both Sydney and Melbourne. Listings in Sydney alone rose by 6.7% compared to the same period last year, while Melbourne saw a more modest increase of 1.1%.

Eliza Owen from CoreLogic attributes this shift to changing market dynamics. "This time of the year is typically slow in terms of demand, but this goes beyond seasonality," she explains. According to Owen, the increase in listings and the apparent lack of eager buyers may be early indicators of growing mortgage stress among homeowners.

Owen suggests, "There’s less appetite from buyers, but more sellers are coming into the market, which could indicate rising mortgage stress." This sentiment is echoed by Cate Bakos, a buyer's agent in Melbourne, who believes, "Prices can’t be expected to grow while we have higher stock levels and weaker buyer demand."

Interestingly, Brisbane and Perth have reported a deceleration in dwelling value growth, maintaining a rate of just 0.3% over the past four weeks. Such trends suggest a potential buyers’ market, particularly in Brisbane, where supply has surged and demand has slowed, according to Zoran Solano of Hot Property Buyers Agency. "For me as a buyer’s agent, it’s a positive sign that the power has shifted back a little bit towards buyers," she observes.

Further analysis from The Australian Financial Review indicates that property values in Brisbane are declining in one out of seven suburbs, the highest rate in almost two years. CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless sees this as a sign that prices may continue to ease due to increased listings, reduced interstate migration, and affordability challenges. "The market is likely to continue to ease, and we could see prices moving into a subtle decline before interest rates come down," he remarks.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver predicts a similar trend, highlighting Brisbane as a market where values might soon turn negative, following the pattern seen in Sydney and Melbourne. "Brisbane looks to me like a really soggy market and I wouldn’t be surprised if house prices go negative in the next couple of months," Oliver comments.

Oliver also suggests that potential interest rate cuts could reverse this downward trajectory. "A rate cut could turn that downward momentum around, so if it occurs in February it has the potential to head off a dip into negative territory for Brisbane prices," he explains, warning that delays in rate cuts might extend the price downturn.

Meanwhile, PropTrack notes an 80% spike in Brisbane home values since the pandemic’s onset in March 2020, which has positioned Brisbane as Australia’s second most expensive housing market by median value. However, rising prices, slowing migration, and worsening affordability may soon turn Brisbane into the latest domino to fall in the nation’s housing saga.

Published:Tuesday, 28th Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Monthly CPI Falls Short Again as Key Components Decline 26 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori A recent release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates that the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is underwhelming expectations once more. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 2.4%, while the CPI excluding volatile items like holiday travel posted a 2.7% rise. Similarly, the annual trimmed mean registered a 2.7% uptick. - read more

Value Seekers Fuel Melbourne's Property Price Resurgence 25 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori Melbourne's property market is experiencing a notable rebound in house prices, driven primarily by value-conscious buyers looking for more affordable options. According to CoreLogic's latest house price report, Melbourne has emerged as the most affordable major capital city in Australia, with a median home price of $772,561 as of February 28, 2025. - read more

Unexpected Unemployment Data Sparks RBA Rate Cut Speculation 21 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori The latest labour market statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) presented a mixed picture, despite initial promising indicators. Although the headline unemployment rate in February remained steady at 4.1% (or 4.05% considering unrounded figures), there was an unexpected decline in employment numbers. - read more

OECD Warns of Sluggish Australian Economic Growth Amid Global Trade Concerns 18 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has issued a warning about a potential slowdown in Australia's economic growth over the next two years. This prediction comes against the backdrop of heightened global uncertainty, spurred by trade policies introduced by US President Donald Trump. The OECD projects Australia’s GDP to rise to 1.9% in 2025 but slip slightly to 1.8% in 2026, falling short of earlier expectations laid out in their December report. - read more

Sydney Leads Australia's Housing Market Resurgence 17 Mar 2025: Paige Estritori CoreLogic's latest preliminary auction results have revealed Sydney's dominant role in Australia's housing rebound, with an impressive clearance rate of 71.4%. This marks the sixth consecutive week that the auction clearance rate in Sydney has surpassed 70%. - read more