Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends

7

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.

Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.

"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."

Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."

The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.

Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.

Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.

"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.

The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.

Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Snowy River Caravans Tops Q3 2025 RV Market with Dual Category Leadership

17 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In a remarkable development for Australia's recreational vehicle (RV) industry, Snowy River Caravans has secured the top position in both the Imported and RVMAP categories for the third quarter of 2025. This achievement signifies a notable shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics within the sector. - read more

Jayco Continues to Lead Australia's RV Market in Q2 2025

17 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Jayco, a prominent name in Australia's recreational vehicle (RV) industry, has successfully maintained its leading position in the market during the second quarter of 2025. Despite experiencing a slight decline, the brand continues to hold a substantial share, reflecting its enduring appeal among Australian consumers. - read more

Rising Caravan Imports and Declining Local Production: Implications for Australia's RV Industry

17 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian recreational vehicle (RV) industry is experiencing a significant shift, marked by an increase in caravan imports coupled with a decline in local production. This trend raises important considerations for domestic manufacturers and consumers alike. - read more

Crusader Caravans and BIG4 Holiday Parks Join Forces to Enhance Caravanning Adventures

09 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In an exciting development for Australian caravan enthusiasts, Crusader Caravans has announced a strategic partnership with BIG4 Holiday Parks. This collaboration aims to provide new caravan owners with exclusive benefits, enriching their travel experiences across the country. - read more

Australian Caravan Parks Experience Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty

09 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Recent data indicates a notable increase in occupancy rates across Australian caravan parks, showcasing the sector's resilience in the face of economic challenges. In October 2025, cabin occupancy nationwide rose to 69%, a four-point increase from the previous year. Powered sites saw a three-point rise to 52%, while unpowered sites reached 22% occupancy. - read more

Click for more Finance News