Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Crusader Caravans Unveils Dreamhaven: Affordable Australian-Made Caravans

12 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In response to escalating housing prices and a growing demand for affordable living solutions, Crusader Caravans has launched its new brand, Dreamhaven. This initiative introduces Australian-made caravans starting at $68,990, positioning itself as a cost-effective alternative to traditional housing and imported caravan models. - read more

Crusader Caravans and BIG4 Holiday Parks Announce Strategic Partnership

12 May 2026: Paige Estritori

Crusader Caravans has entered into a strategic partnership with BIG4 Holiday Parks, aiming to enrich the caravanning experience for Australians. This collaboration connects Crusader's high-quality, Australian-made caravans with BIG4's extensive network of holiday parks, offering caravan owners exclusive benefits and streamlined access to premier destinations. - read more

Crusader Caravans Introduces 'Smart Touring' Strategy to Combat Rising Fuel Costs

12 May 2026: Paige Estritori

With fuel prices reaching unprecedented levels, Crusader Caravans has unveiled a 'smart touring' strategy to assist Australian caravanners in managing travel expenses. This initiative includes a comprehensive guide offering practical fuel-saving tips tailored for caravan owners. - read more

Zone RV's Acquisition by Essential Caravans: Implications for Customers

04 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The recent acquisition of Zone RV by Melbourne-based Essential Caravans marks a significant development in the Australian caravan industry. This transition ensures the continuation of the Zone RV brand and its premium Australian-made caravans. However, it also presents challenges for existing customers who had placed orders prior to the company's collapse. - read more

CIAA National Conference 2026: A Comprehensive Preview

04 May 2026: Paige Estritori

The Caravan Industry Association of Australia (CIAA) is set to host its 2026 National Conference from May 13 to 15 at the RACV Royal Pines Resort on the Gold Coast. This annual gathering is a cornerstone event for the caravan and camping sector, offering a blend of industry insights, networking opportunities, and professional development. - read more

Click for more Finance News