Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Crusader Caravans Recognised as RV Master Manufacturer

21 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

Crusader Caravans has been officially recognised as an RV Master Manufacturer, a prestigious accreditation awarded by Caravan Industry Victoria (CIV). This accolade underscores Crusader's dedication to excellence in the Australian recreational vehicle (RV) manufacturing sector. - read more

Arizon Off-Grid Unveils NEXUS Power Control System

21 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

Arizon Off-Grid has announced the launch of its NEXUS Power Control System, a cutting-edge solution designed to enhance off-grid power capabilities for caravans and 4WD vehicles. This innovative system is set to debut at the Melbourne Caravan & Camping Leisurefest, offering a new level of control and efficiency for off-grid enthusiasts. - read more

Hitch Campers' Madigan Hybrid Camper Now in Production

21 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

Hitch Campers has commenced production of its highly anticipated Madigan hybrid camper, marking a significant milestone for off-road enthusiasts in Australia. Following extensive research and development, the Madigan is set to offer a blend of comfort and rugged capability tailored for the Australian landscape. - read more

Introducing the Kia Tasman: Kia's Entry into the Australian Ute Segment

13 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian ute market is poised to welcome a new entrant with the upcoming launch of the Kia Tasman. Scheduled to arrive in mid-2025, the Tasman marks Kia's inaugural foray into the competitive utility vehicle segment, traditionally dominated by models like the Ford Ranger, Toyota HiLux, and Isuzu D-Max. - read more

Lightspeed Motor Company: Bringing Car Manufacturing Back to Australia

13 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a bold move to revitalise Australia's automotive manufacturing sector, Melbourne-based Lightspeed Motor Company has announced plans to locally produce the Ariel Atom sports car and the Ariel Nomad off-roader. This initiative aims to address lengthy wait times and high costs associated with importing these vehicles from the UK. - read more

Click for more Finance News