Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

A More Selective Caravan Market Could Help Prepared Buyers

13 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Recent caravan industry reporting suggests Australia's RV market is moving into a more selective phase, with buyers taking longer to decide, comparing layouts more carefully and looking harder at total ownership costs before committing. That does not mean demand for caravanning has disappeared. Rather, it points to a market where households are more cautious, dealers are working harder to convert enquiries, and value is being judged beyond the headline price. - read more

Why Tow Vehicle Costs Now Matter More for Caravan Buyers

06 Aug 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia's latest monthly new-car sales reporting has reinforced a trend caravan buyers cannot afford to ignore: the tow vehicle is becoming just as important to the finance conversation as the caravan itself. Utes, large SUVs and four-wheel drives continue to attract strong buyer interest, helped by touring lifestyles, work-and-family versatility and the need for higher towing capacity. - read more

Sticky Inflation Adds Another Budget Check for Caravan Buyers

30 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia’s latest inflation signals have kept interest-rate relief from looking straightforward, and that is important for anyone planning a caravan purchase before spring. While borrowers have been watching for signs of a lower cash rate, the recent commentary around consumer prices suggests lenders may remain cautious rather than aggressively cutting rates across recreational asset loans. - read more

What the Camec Sale Means for Caravan Buyers

23 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Fleetwood’s decision to sell its RV Solutions division, including the well-known Camec business, to Aussie Traveller is another sign that Australia’s caravan sector is still reshaping after a volatile few years. The binding sale agreement, announced on 16 July 2026, puts a $9.5 million headline price on the business and is expected to complete on 1 September 2026. - read more

New July Caravan Loan Data Highlights Why Buyers Need to Compare Carefully

16 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Fresh caravan loan comparison data published on 15 July 2026 points to a market where headline rates can look attractive, but the difference between a strong application and a weaker one remains significant. For Australians planning to buy a caravan, camper trailer or motorhome, the message is clear: do not judge a loan by the advertised rate alone. - read more

Click for more Finance News