Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Essential Caravans' Acquisition of Zone RV: What It Means for Customers

11 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian caravan industry has recently witnessed a significant development with Essential Caravans' acquisition of Zone RV, a luxury caravan manufacturer that entered administration in December 2025, leaving creditors owed $42 million. This acquisition ensures the continuation of the Zone RV brand and its premium Australian-made caravans. However, it also presents challenges for existing customers who had placed orders prior to the company's collapse. - read more

Australian Caravan Repairers Struggle Amid Fuel Crisis

11 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The escalating fuel crisis in Australia is having a profound impact on the caravan repair industry, with many businesses experiencing a significant downturn in demand. As fuel prices continue to rise, travellers are reconsidering their plans, leading to fewer caravans on the road and, consequently, less need for repair services. - read more

RBA Holds Cash Rate at 4.35%: Implications for Caravan Financing

04 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced its decision to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% during its June 2026 meeting. This decision comes amid ongoing economic uncertainties and aims to balance inflation control with economic growth. - read more

2026 Caravan Industry National Conference Breaks Attendance Records

04 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The 2026 Caravan Industry National Conference, held on the Gold Coast, has set a new benchmark with over 1,150 delegates and 140 exhibitors in attendance. This record turnout underscores the robust growth and optimism within Australia's caravan and camping sector. - read more

Prattline's Low Tow Caravan: A New Era in Off-Road Travel

28 May 2026: Paige Estritori

Prattline has launched the Low Tow, a compact off-road caravan designed to revolutionise the travel experience for adventure enthusiasts. This model boasts a unique two-shell expanding design, allowing for a low profile during transit and expanded living space when stationary. - read more

Click for more Finance News